Unpicking the Trump-Harris debate

In the debate between the two main US presidential candidates, both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump did enough to allow their supporters to claim victory. The Republicans thought the hosts, ABC, was biased against their man using fact checks and more penetrating questions against him.

It is unlikely to alter the polling much. The main issues remain the economy/inflation and levels of migration, where Trump continues to lead. Harris has introduced abortion and women’s rights as important issues – and areas in which she is ahead.

Harris deployed new policy positions on the economy, expressing a general aim of lower taxes on working people and more detailed measures to help small businesses. Mr Trump accused her of copying, trying to reassert Republican supremacy as tax cutters. Harris revealed she owns a gun to try to counter the Republican support for the gun lobby, whilst she still favours more controls and checks on guns given the amount of violent crime.

The race remains too close to call. Harris has made the Democrats much more competitive than was seen in the aftermath of the Biden/Trump debate and is ahead in the national poll. She still has work to do to overhaul Trump in enough swing states and to erode his lead on the two biggest issues.

The policy positions

The following policies are taken from the Republican 2024 platform and Kamala Harris’s website.

The Republicans have been campaigning for some time on a 20-point policy programme. This combines general aspirations such as bringing the US to “new levels of success” with detailed policies on keeping tax cuts and removing tax on tips.

The Kamala Harris website has now almost matched this with 19 points, again mixing general aspiration with some specific policy pledges, including matching the tax on tips promise. The Harris points include summaries of what she and President Biden have done on the issue whilst in office and therefore is more discursive.

The Republican summary points are shorter. In the summaries below we have simply quoted the Republican text and have summarised the longer Democrat text. The Democrat summary on borders is a quote from the longer text as it is a particularly important one.

There is considerable agreement about building the domestic economy, backing workers and the middle class, and offering tax cuts to the lower-paid. There is plenty of disagreement over how to deal with migration and borders, how to develop US energy, how to balance tax cuts with spending rises, how to conduct elections and what to do about abortion.

Kamala Harris says she wants to control the borders better but accepts the system is broken where she and the President are responsible. She would argue the Republican House of Representatives hindered legal changes. She is strong on a woman’s right to choose on abortion and more people agree with her than with the Republican position stressing the rights of the unborn child.

She sees violent crime as an issue about gun control whilst Donald Trump sees it as a law enforcement matter partly related to migration. The Democrats highlight affordable housing and student debt whilst the Republicans stress the need for rebuilt and cleaner cities and safer campuses with free speech at universities.

They both want a negotiated settlement in Gaza. Trump wants peace in Ukraine whilst Harris backs Ukraine to win the war against Russia. Trump attacks Biden/Harris for the withdrawal from Afghanistan and the loss of that country to the Taliban and claims the Middle East and Eastern Europe would have been more stable if he had been President.

Trump does better with voters who think the US gets pulled into too many foreign wars. Harris does better with the foreign policy establishment who want the US to engage widely working with allies.

Here are summaries of the aims and policies of the two main candidates. The Republican (R) points are as written in their summary programme. The Democrat (D) are highlights/summaries from their longer text on the Harris website.

Democratic Party presidential aims

• “Our immigration system is broken and needs comprehensive reform”
• Tackle the opioid and fentanyl crisis
• Tackle bad actors and costs with anti-gouging act
• Unite Americans to tackle the climate crisis and create more clean energy
• Invest in us strength backing workers and industry
• No tax on tips and increase in child tax credit and earned income credit. no increase of tax below $400,000 a year income
• Protect civil rights and freedoms with more vote by mail and early voting
• Seek peace in Gaza, work with allies, be tough on Iran
• No one to be above the law further action against trump
• Make communities safer against gun violence with bans on some weapons and better checks on gun licences
• Strengthen union rights
• Offer more support for veterans
• Invest in affordable home care and childcare
• Protect welfare
• Encourage 25 million small business applications and raise the start-up expense deduction
• Alleviation of student debts
• Protect women’s reproductive rights
• Cut cost of healthcare with controlled prices for insulin and cancellation of some medical debts
• Create three million more affordable homes to rent and strengthen law against landlords

Republican party aims

• Seal the border, and stop the migrant invasion
• Carry out the largest deportation operation in American history
• End inflation, and make America affordable again
• Make America the dominant energy producer in the world, by far!
• Stop outsourcing, and turn the US into a manufacturing superpower
• Large tax cuts for workers, and no tax on tips!
• Defend our constitution, our bill of rights, and our fundamental freedoms, including freedom of speech, freedom of religion, and the right to keep and bear arms
• Prevent World War Three, restore peace in Europe and in the middle east, and build a great iron dome missile defense shield over our entire country -- all made in America
• End the weaponization of government against the American people
• Stop the migrant crime epidemic, demolish the foreign drug cartels, crush gang violence, and lock up violent offenders
• Rebuild our cities, including Washington DC, making them safe, clean, and beautiful again.
• Strengthen and modernize our military, making it, without question, the strongest and most powerful in the world
• Keep the US dollar as the world's reserve currency
• Fight for and protect social security and Medicare with no cuts, including no changes to the retirement age
• Cancel the electric vehicle mandate and cut costly and burdensome regulations
• Keep men out of women's sports
• Deport pro-Hamas radicals and make our college campuses safe and patriotic again
• Secure our elections, including same day voting, voter identification, paper ballots, and proof of citizenship
• Unite our country by bringing it to new and record levels of success
• Cut federal funding for any school pushing critical race theory, radical gender ideology, and other inappropriate racial, sexual, or political content on our children

Conclusion

The main thing that has changed has been the development of a Democrat statement of aims and policies. Harris used the small business and tax issues in the debate to seek to narrow the gap on the economy, with Trump accusing her of copying.

Some floating voters may be impressed by the offer whilst others may wonder why this has not happened under a Biden/Harris Administration and what other taxes Democrat plans may require. Haris is seeking to blunt the dissatisfaction with the past inflation through her proposals on drug prices and alleged food price gouging. Trump is trying to keep focus on migration and the economy, though he allowed himself to be dragged into comments about pets and attendance at his rallies which gave his critics things to complain about.

Both candidates made plenty of personal attacks and left many US voters with the same voting intentions as before. It is worth noting the evolution of economic policy and the hints of some bi partisanship on taxation of workers.