The week ahead in markets and economics

Investors can expect some significant US data releases this week including S&P Global’s purchasing managers’ index (PMI) surveys, which are set to test the narrative of a cooling but resilient global economy. Attention will centre on non-farm payrolls and the April Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (Jolts) survey. Both are expected to show a labour market that is easing gradually, alongside the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, which should reinforce a picture of modest growth and subdued hiring. In the UK, the Halifax house price index and PMI data are likely to underline a softer domestic backdrop, with housing broadly stable but activity indicators pointing to weakness, particularly in services. Across the global PMI releases – including the eurozone, China and Japan – the consensus is for patchy, low-level growth, with readings near or below the 50 threshold highlighting fragile demand and rising cost pressures. Taken together, the data flow is expected to cement the view that while major economies are avoiding outright contraction, momentum is fading and the outlook remains highly sensitive to interest rates, inflation and geopolitical risks. 

Talks following the ceasefire between the US and Iran remain fragile and tentative, with negotiations focused on maintaining open shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz and preventing a renewed escalation, but with little sign yet of a durable long-term settlement. Markets are closely attuned to these developments, as the initial truce triggered a sharp repricing of risk – equities rallied and oil prices fell as fears of a major supply shock eased – yet investors remain cautious given the temporary nature of the agreement and the risk that tensions could flare up again. The persistence of elevated energy prices compared with pre-conflict levels, alongside ongoing uncertainty around future supply disruptions, means the negotiations continue to have outsized importance for inflation, growth expectations and central bank policy. As a result, global markets continue to trade on headlines from the talks, balancing short-term relief against the longer-term risk that the ceasefire could unravel and reignite volatility

Worldwide: S&P Global PMI data – Wednesday 3 June

Expectations for the latest round of S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) releases across major economies point to a global picture of subdued and uneven growth. In the US, business activity is expected to remain in modest expansion territory, with the composite PMI hovering just above 50 and reflecting a growing divergence between resilient manufacturing – boosted in part by inventory building – and a much softer services sector, leaving overall growth fragile.  By contrast, the UK is likely to remain the key laggard among advanced economies, with recent data pointing to contraction as services activity falters and business confidence is hit by geopolitical tensions and domestic uncertainty.  Across the eurozone, France, Germany and Italy, PMIs are expected to stay below or around the 50 threshold, signalling ongoing weakness, while China and India should continue to show modest expansion and Japan only marginal growth. Canada and Brazil are also seen recording steady but unspectacular readings. Taken together, the surveys are expected to reinforce a theme of a global economy “under pressure”, where growth persists but is slowing and increasingly vulnerable to higher costs, geopolitical risks and weakening demand. 

This week remains quiet on the corporate earnings front. 

United Kingdom

Halifax House Price Index (May) – Friday 5 June

Expectations for the UK’s latest Halifax house price index centre on a broadly flat to marginally positive reading, underscoring a housing market that remains stable but subdued. Recent data showed prices edging down by 0.1% month-on-month in April and annual growth slowing to just 0.4%, suggesting momentum has softened after a firmer start to the year. Analysts anticipate a similar pattern in May, with modest monthly movements and annual growth remaining close to zero, as higher borrowing costs and lingering cost-of-living pressures temper demand. Nonetheless, the underlying backdrop is one of resilience, with wage growth outpacing house price inflation and most existing borrowers insulated by fixed-rate mortgages. The broader outlook for 2026 remains for low single-digit gains – with Halifax itself guiding to annual growth of around 1% to 3% – reinforcing expectations that the upcoming release will point to a market characterised by stability rather than any sharp rebound or downturn. 

United States

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (April) – Tuesday 2 June

Expectations for the US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (Jolts) for April point to a further modest easing in labour demand, with economists anticipating openings to edge down towards roughly 6.8 million from 6.87 million in March. The projected decline would extend a broader trend of cooling from post-pandemic highs, with job vacancies having drifted lower in recent months while largely stabilising in a narrow range. Analysts say the data is likely to reinforce the view of a “low-hire, low-fire” labour market, where hiring, quits and layoffs remain subdued, indicating neither a sharp deterioration nor renewed strength. The anticipated reading would be consistent with other recent indicators pointing to a slower but resilient jobs backdrop, as higher borrowing costs, geopolitical uncertainty and structural shifts such as AI adoption temper employers’ appetite to expand headcount. 

Beige Book – Wednesday 3 June

Expectations for the Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book are for a cautiously neutral tone, reinforcing the narrative of a US economy that is slowing but not stalling. Recent district reports have pointed to activity that is broadly stable or growing only slightly, with hiring subdued, wage gains modest and price pressures still present but no longer intensifying sharply. The Beige Book’s significance lies in its role as a qualitative snapshot of economic conditions across the 12 Federal Reserve districts, compiled from interviews with companies and economists and published ahead of each policy meeting. Unlike hard data, it captures real-time sentiment and emerging trends, helping policymakers gauge underlying demand, labour market slack and inflation pressures, and often shaping expectations for interest rate decisions as well as market sentiment more broadly. 

Non-farm payrolls (May) – Friday 5 June

Expectations for the closely watched US non-farm payrolls report, due on Friday, point to another month of modest job creation, underscoring a labour market that is cooling but still resilient. Economists typically see payrolls rising by around 90,000 to 110,000 in May, marking a slight step down from April’s 115,000 increase and broadly in line with the subdued pace seen in recent months. The unemployment rate is expected to hold near 4.3%, reflecting a backdrop in which relatively modest hiring is sufficient to keep joblessness steady. Taken together, the anticipated figures should support the view that the US labour market is gradually losing momentum without signalling a sharp deterioration, leaving the Federal Reserve with little immediate pressure to shift policy. 

Earnings reports

Monday: Hewlett Packard Enterprise (second quarter).

Tuesday: British American Tobacco (interim trading update), Palo Alto Networks (third quarter).

Wednesday: B&M European Value Retail (full year), Broadcom (second quarter), CrowdStrike (first quarter), Inditex (first quarter).

Thursday: CMC Markets (full year), Rémy Cointreau (full year).