The week ahead in markets and economics

In the US, some important economic data for the Federal Reserve will be released this week – and we have the start of the second-quarter earnings season. GDP data will also give a timely update on the resilience of the mainland Chinese economy with UK inflation numbers being assessed as markets try to predict the Bank of England’s next interest-rate move.

UK: Inflation may tick up

Consumer Price Index (June) – Wednesday, 16 July

Clues as to the next policy move from the Bank of England will be sought from the latest UK inflation numbers. UK’s core consumer prices index (CPI) is forecast to have risen by 3.5% over the 12 months to the end of June – 0.1% higher than May’s 3.4% figure. If so, this will be unwelcome news for Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who is due to address City grandees with news of significant financial services and savings policy reforms in a speech at Mansion House on Tuesday evening. The Bank of England’s next rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled for 6 August.

US: Tariff impact eyed

Consumer Price Index (June) – Tuesday, 15 July 15

Markets are expecting US inflation to have accelerated in June on the back of tariff-related price rises. Headline and core consumer price inflation rose just 0.1% in May, but these rates are anticipated to have lifted to 0.2% or 0.3% in June, or 2.6% year-on-year. With inflation still above the Fed’s 2% target, this release could influence expectations for rate cuts later in the year. A hotter-than-expected print may delay policy easing.

Retail sales (June) – Thursday, 17 July

The US Census Bureau is set to release June retail sales data, a closely watched indicator of consumer spending that could sway market sentiment and influence Federal Reserve policy. Retail sales are a key barometer of economic health, accounting for roughly two-thirds of US gross domestic product (GDP). A stronger-than-expected report could signal resilient consumer demand, potentially complicating the Federal Reserve’s path toward rate cuts. Economists anticipate a modest rebound in retail and food services sales, with headline growth projected at +0.3% month-over-month, excluding autos. This follows a slight decline in May, suggesting a tentative recovery in consumer demand.

Corporate reporting

The second-quarter reporting season kicks off this week on Wednesday with reports from US banks JPMorganChase, Citigroup and Wells Fargo.