The week ahead in markets and economics

The US government shutdown is now the longest in history but appears to be edging toward resolution after the Senate advanced a bipartisan funding measure late on Sunday. Eight Democrats joined Republicans to move forward on a deal that would reopen the government until 30 January next year, reinstate laid-off federal workers – and guarantee back pay. The compromise also promises a mid-December vote on Affordable Care Act tax credits – a key Democratic demand – though final passage could take several more days and still requires House approval and President Trump’s signature. However, the Trump administration will be keen to rectify the matter ahead of Thanksgiving on 27 November, as many Americans will want to fly home and a full air-traffic control system must be operating to reduce the risk of public anger being directed at the White House. 

The shutdown’s economic fallout is severe. Most major federal data releases are on hold, leaving markets and policymakers “flying blind”. The Bureau of Labor Statistics and Commerce Department remain shuttered, forcing the Federal Reserve to rely on private-sector indicators during a critical policy window. Analysts warn that the blackout could delay rate decisions and distort unemployment figures, while Goldman Sachs estimates fourth quarter GDP growth could be cut by up to two percentage points, with $7bn–$14bn in output permanently lost. Investors face a thin data calendar this week, with only private surveys and corporate earnings offering clues, amplifying uncertainty across markets.

This week, there will also be a significant focus on climate change. The United Nations’ COP30 summit – opening on Monday in Belém, Brazil – is being billed as one of the most consequential climate summits in a decade. It comes ten years after the Paris Agreement and amid record global temperatures. Delegates from nearly 200 nations will focus on closing the emissions gap to keep planetary warming near 1.5°C, scaling up adaptation financing, reforming global climate funding, and protecting forests and biodiversity in the Amazon. The summit is also expected to push for a credible roadmap to mobilise $1.3 trillion annually for developing countries and accelerate the shift from fossil fuels to clean energy. However, the absence of US President Donald Trump – and his administration’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement for a second time – casts a long shadow. Mr Trump has denounced climate change as a “con job,” prioritised fossil-fuel exports and threatened trade retaliation against nations backing ambitious climate measures. Not only does this leave the US isolated, it forces the European Union and other players to shoulder greater leadership burdens. His stance underscores the geopolitical headwinds facing COP30 and raises doubts about whether the summit can deliver the step change needed to achieve its ambitious goals. The summit is scheduled to last two weeks but may overrun. 

Global: insight into energy volatility

IEA Oil Market Report – Thursday 13 November

The International Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) monthly Oil Market Report is a key driver of sentiment in energy markets, offering authoritative forecasts on global supply, demand, and price trends. Thursday’s release is expected to highlight slowing demand growth – around 1.1 million barrels per day for 2025 – and rising non-Opec supply, pointing to a potential structural surplus in the coming years. This could pressure crude prices lower, easing inflation risks and supporting central banks’ dovish tilt. However, geopolitical tensions and Opec+ production strategies remain wildcards that could keep volatility high. Watch for any sharp revisions to demand or supply estimates: a bearish tone could weigh on oil stocks and energy exchange-traded funds, while a surprise tightening outlook might lift prices and related equities.

UK: anaemic growth expected 

Labour market figures (November) - Tuesday 11 November

The UK labour market figures are expected to show a cooling jobs market, with employment edging lower and unemployment ticking up toward 4.8%, while economic inactivity remains stubbornly high at around 21%. Average weekly earnings growth is forecast to slow slightly, with private-sector regular pay likely near 4.7%–4.8% year-on-year, down from recent peaks, reinforcing signs that wage pressures are easing. Vacancies are anticipated to continue their steady decline, reflecting softer hiring demand and persistent caution among employers amid higher costs and weak confidence. These figures matter because they will shape expectations for the Bank of England’s next moves: a softer labour market and moderating pay growth strengthen the case for holding rates or even considering cuts in 2026, while any upside surprise could keep policymakers wary of inflation risks.

Preliminary third-quarter GDP data – Thursday 13 November

Thursday’s preliminary UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data will give the first official estimate of economic growth for the third quarter and September, with consensus pointing to flat or marginal growth – around 0.0%–0.1% – after a weak summer performance and falling output in manufacturing and construction. These early figures are significant because they set the tone for growth expectations, but they are subject to revision as more comprehensive data on trade, inventories, and services become available – a process that can take some time and often leads to adjustments through the Office for National Statistics Blue Book updates. Revisions occur because initial estimates rely on partial surveys and proxies, which are later replaced by fuller datasets and methodological improvements. Markets will watch closely for any signs of resilience in services or consumer spending, as the headline number will feed into forecasts for 2025 growth and monetary policy discussions. 

US: data doubt

CPI inflation (October) – Thursday 13 November

October’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is expected to show headline inflation rising 0.1% month-on-month and 3.2% year-on-year, with core CPI – excluding food and energy – forecast at 0.3% monthly and 3.8% annually. This data is highly significant because it provides the Federal Reserve and markets with a key gauge of price pressures at a time when monetary policy direction is uncertain. It is unclear whether the data will be released

PPI inflation rate (October) – Friday 14 November

Friday’s US Producer Price Index (PPI) report – tracking wholesale prices for goods and services – is expected to show final demand rising about 0.2% month-on-month and 2.5%–2.6% year-on-year, with core PPI (excluding food and energy) near 0.2% monthly and 3.0%–3.2% annually, according to consensus estimates. PPI matters because it signals pipeline inflation pressures that often feed into consumer prices, making it a key gauge for Federal Reserve policy and market expectations. Like the CPI data, it is unclear whether this will be released.

EU: will growth show resilience?

Preliminary third-quarter GDP estimate – Friday 14 November

Thursday’s preliminary EU GDP release will provide the first flash estimate for third-quarter growth across the euro area and the wider EU. Consensus expects quarter-on-quarter growth of around 0.1% in the eurozone and 0.2% for the EU, with year-on-year expansion near 1.2%–1.3%, signalling modest resilience despite headwinds. The data is significant because it shapes policy and market expectations ahead of the year-end, even though these early figures rely on incomplete country data and are subject to revision as fuller national accounts become available. Investors will watch closely for signs of divergence among member states and whether the euro area can sustain growth against tightening financial conditions. 

Corporate reporting

The peak of the third-quarter reporting season has passed, but there are still many significant corporate results releases for the market to digest. This week sees several reports coming from insurers and engineers, with numbers from Burberry eyes as the luxury-goods sector comes under scrutiny (see: Beyond the boom: why the luxury-goods industry must evolve to survive).

Tuesday: Hilton Food Group (trading update), Informa (ten-month trading update), Oxford Instruments (half year), Porsche (third quarter), SoftBank (second quarter), Sony (second quarter), Vodafone (half year).

Wednesday: ABN Amro (third quarter), BAE Systems (trading update), Cisco Systems (first quarter), E.On (third quarter), Experian (half year), Flutter Entertainment (third quarter), Foxconn (third quarter), Fuller’s (half year), Infineon Technologies (fourth quarter), Marshalls (trading update), SSE (half year),  Tata Steel (second quarter), Taylor Wimpey (trading update), Volex (half year).

Thursday: 3i Group (half year), Aegon (third quarter), Alstom (half year), Applied Materials (fourth quarter), Aviva (third quarter trading update), B&M (half year), Burberry (half year), Disney (fourth quarter), Kier (trading update), Persimmon (trading update), Premier Foods (half year), Qinetiq (half year), Rolls-Royce (trading update), Siemens (fourth quarter), Tencent (third quarter), United Utilities (half year), Wizz Air (half year).

Friday: Allianz (third quarter), Land Securities (half year), Melrose Industries (trading update), Swiss Re (third quarter), Tata Motors (second quarter).