The week ahead in markets and economics

A busy week of corporate results will see a wide cross‑section of major US companies report, offering investors a snapshot of economic momentum across technology, consumer goods, finance and industrials. 

A packed slate of economic data will give investors and policymakers a clearer read on the strength of US and global growth, with key releases ranging from manufacturing gauges to labour market updates. In the US, the week opens with January’s ISM manufacturing index on Monday, followed by December’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey job‑openings report on Tuesday and ISM services index on Wednesday. Major central bank decisions – including the Bank of England and the European Central Bank – on Thursday and culminating in Friday’s closely watched January non‑farm payrolls and unemployment figures, alongside consumer sentiment data.

Worldwide: Purchasing Managers' Index data 

Global business‑activity indicators return to the spotlight this week as S&P Global publishes a heavy slate of Manufacturing and Services PMIs across major economies – releases that often set the tone for markets well before official economic data lands. On Monday, there’s a flood of Manufacturing PMIs from Asia, Europe and the Americas, including Japan, China (via partner compilers), India, Germany, France, the eurozone, the UK and the US, released according to S&P Global’s standard schedule for the first working day of the month. The services counterpart follows on Wednesday, covering key economies such as Japan, Hong Kong, India, Russia and the UAE, alongside sector‑specific global PMI readings. Meanwhile, the US S&P Global Composite PMI – one of the most closely watched indicators – will also attract particular attention, with the next monthly release due on Wednesday. These datasets matter because the PMI is among the world’s most influential forward‑looking indicators. S&P Global’s PMI surveys – covering business output, orders, employment, supply chains and prices – are used by policymakers, central banks, investors and corporate leaders to gauge economic momentum weeks before official GDP, inflation or employment figures are published. PMI readings above 50 signal expansion, while those below 50 indicate contraction. 

UK: PMIs and rate decision

PMI Manufacturing, Services and Composite – Monday 2 and Wednesday 4 February

The S&P Global UK Manufacturing, Services and Composite PMIs will give one of the earliest and clearest snapshots of how the UK economy is entering 2026. The UK Manufacturing PMI will be scrutinised for signs of whether factory activity is stabilising after months of subdued global demand and rising input‑cost pressures, as reflected in wider PMI trends showing tariff‑driven inflation in manufacturing and soft export orders. Meanwhile, the Services PMI is likely to indicate whether the UK’s dominant services sector – previously supported by resilient domestic demand but facing intensifying competition – can maintain expansion amid softer order‑book growth seen in global flash PMIs. Combined, the Composite PMI will show whether momentum is improving or slipping across the private sector. Because PMI surveys often detect economic turning points ahead of official data, investors and policymakers will read the results as a guide to near‑term growth prospects, inflation pressures and the potential direction of Bank of England policy. 

PMI Construction - Thursday 5 February

The UK Construction PMI due for release on 5 February 2026 is compiled jointly by S&P Global and the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply (CIPS). The index is formally known as the S&P Global/CIPS UK Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index, reflecting the long‑standing partnership in which S&P Global conducts and processes the survey, while CIPS represents the procurement professionals who participate in it. The data is expected to reveal whether the sector is beginning to stabilise after a bruising year marked by persistent contraction

Bank of England rate decision – Thursday 5 February

 The Bank of England is widely expected to hold interest rates at 3.75% when its Monetary Policy Committee meets on Thursday, with markets and economists seeing virtually no chance of another cut this early in the year. Recent data has complicated the picture. Inflation ticked higher than expected in December, interrupting its previous downward trend and weakening hopes of an early‑2026 rate cut, while minutes from late‑2025 meetings show policymakers still divided over how much further to ease policy. According to a Reuters‑surveyed consensus, 54 of 56 economists expect no change, reflecting concern that inflation may prove stickier than the Bank anticipated. 

US: PMIs and jobs

PMI Manufacturing, Services and Composite – Monday 2 and Wednesday 4 February

The S&P Global US Manufacturing, Services and Composite PMIs are expected to show whether the US economy is maintaining the early‑2026 momentum hinted at in January’s flash readings. The latest flash Composite PMI ticked up to 52.8, signalling modest but steady expansion across the private sector as manufacturing output accelerated and services activity held firm, even as new‑order growth softened and exports declined. Analysts expect the full‑month figures to confirm this pattern. Manufacturing PMI is likely to remain in expansion territory thanks to stronger output and persistent price pressures linked to tariffs, while the Services PMI may show slower underlying demand but continued resilience amid moderating inflation. Together, the three indices will offer one of the clearest real‑time signals of whether the US economy is still outperforming other major regions—and whether the Federal Reserve can justify its “wait‑and‑see” stance on rate cuts as 2026 begins. 

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (December) data – Tuesday 3 February

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (Jolts) data for December to show the labour market continuing to cool, with job openings forecast to slip. The survey – a key gauge of labour demand watched by the Federal Reserve – is likely to reinforce the picture of a gradually loosening jobs market after last year’s declines in vacancies across sectors such as accommodation, transport and wholesale trade.

Jobs data – Thursday 5 February

The US initial and continuing jobless claims are expected to reinforce the picture of a labour market that is cooling only gradually rather than cracking under economic pressure. Recent data show initial claims hovering near 209,000 – a historically low level – and forecasters anticipate a similar reading this week, with consensus pointing to roughly 213,000 new claims. Continuing claims, which track the number of Americans still receiving unemployment benefits, have also been easing, recently dropping to 1.83 million, the lowest since late 2024 – evidence of ongoing labour‑market resilience despite slower hiring conditions. Another stable print would confirm that employers remain reluctant to lay off workers even as demand cools, maintaining the “low‑hire, low‑fire” dynamic seen through late 2025. These figures matter because they arrive just days after the Federal Reserve paused its rate‑cutting cycle, and another week of subdued claims would give policymakers little urgency to resume easing while inflation risks remain in focus.

Non-farm payrolls (January) – Friday 6 February

Markets expect a subdued US non‑farm payrolls report, with forecasts pointing to another month of modest hiring after the economy added just 50,000 jobs in December – well below earlier expectations. Analysts broadly anticipate a similar figure for January, reflecting a labour market that has cooled markedly from its post‑pandemic highs, with recent gains concentrated in sectors such as leisure, hospitality and health care, while retail and manufacturing remain weak. A print in line with the roughly 50,000‑job forecast would reinforce the picture of slower but steady job creation, signalling that employers are cautious but not cutting staff aggressively as the economy adjusts to tighter financial conditions. 

Eurozone: ECB decision eyed

European Central Bank rate decision – Thursday 5 February

Markets broadly expect the European Central Bank to leave interest rates unchanged, with policymakers signalling a steady‑as‑she‑goes stance as inflation tracks close to target and the eurozone economy shows modest resilience. Analysts note that the deposit rate has held at 2.00% since last summer and recent guidance suggests no appetite for an imminent policy shift, while market pricing implies an overwhelming likelihood of a hold. With the euro trading near multi‑year highs and officials increasingly alert to risks from currency strength and global trade tensions, the Governing Council is seen reiterating its data‑dependent, meeting‑by‑meeting approach rather than setting any new direction. 

Earnings reports

Monday: Walt Disney (first quarter), Tyson Foods (first quarter).

Tuesday: Advanced Micro Devices (fourth quarter), AG Barr (trading statement), Akzo Nobel (fourth quarter), Electronic Arts (third quarter), Nintendo (third quarter), Paypal (fourth quarter), PepsiCo (fourth quarter), Pfizer (fourth quarter), Prudential Financial (fourth quarter).

Wednesday: GSK (fourth quarter), Watches of Switzerland (trading update), Alphabet (fourth quarter), Arm Holdings (third quarter), Eli Lilly & Co (fourth quarter), Equifax (fourth quarter), Equinor (fourth quarter), Fox Corp (second quarter), Infineon Technologies (first quarter), Novartis (fourth quarter), Novo Nordisk (fourth quarter), Panasonic (third quarter), Qualcomm (first quarter), SSE (third quarter trading update), Uber Technologies (fourth quarter),  UBS (fourth quarter).

Thursday: Shell (fourth quarter), Vodafone (trading update), BT Group (trading update), Amazon.com (fourth quarter), Anglo American (fourth quarter production), Compass (first quarter trading update), ConocoPhillips (fourth quarter), Maersk (fourth quarter), News Corp (second quarter), Sony (third quarter), Thomson Reuters (fourth quarter).

Friday: Ørsted (fourth quarter), Philip Morris (fourth quarter), Societe Generale (fourth quarter), Toyota (third quarter).