After SpaceX, will the AI IPO race heat up – or is it just hype?

SpaceX’s blockbuster listing this month on the Nasdaq – the US stock exchange home to many tech giants – matters for more than just the company itself.

As Amish Patel, Head of Equity Research, has put it, SpaceX’s introduction to public markets was “more of a market event than a typical listing,” largely because its size makes inclusion in major indices – benchmarks that track groups of stocks – almost inevitable. 

Meanwhile, Patrick Farrell, Chief Investment Officer, has stressed the importance of looking “beyond the hype” to assess the commercial viability of fast-growing investment themes such as AI. 

Here our fund, equity and responsible investing experts share their views on the impact so far, whether more companies are likely to go public, and what investors should look out for next.

What do we know about the impact of SpaceX’s historic listing so far? The significance for indices 

Lynn Hutchinson, Head of ETF and Index Solutions, writes.

SpaceX is already forcing index providers to rethink some of their methodologies, including those used by the Nasdaq 100 and FTSE indices. The S&P 500, however, has not changed its rules and continues to require companies to have been publicly listed for at least 12 months before they can be considered for inclusion.

When SpaceX joins major indices at their next rebalance date, its impact could be significant. Unlike most newly listed companies, it could become one of the market’s largest constituents very quickly. 

However, its index weight may initially be lower than many investors expect. This is because index providers base allocations not only on the value of a company but also on the shares available to public investors, and a substantial proportion of SpaceX ownership is currently held by founders, employees and private investors rather than being freely traded on public markets.

For investors, this means that even after a potential listing, exposure to SpaceX through index funds and ETFs is likely to build gradually as more shares become available to the market.

Anthropic, OpenAI… are more AI IPOs coming? An equity research view 

Amish Patel, Head of Equity Research, writes.

SpaceX may have taken the headlines, but it is unlikely to be the only major private technology company testing public-market appetite this year. The direction of travel is clear: some of the world’s largest private AI and technology businesses are moving closer to the listed market.

Anthropic, the company behind Claude, announced on 1 June that it had confidentially submitted a draft S-1. A document companies must file to the regulator – the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) – when planning to go public in the US. OpenAI followed a week later with its own confidential filing. Neither company has confirmed the number of shares, pricing or timing, and OpenAI has been careful to stress that no decision has been made on when it might list.

The potential scale is striking. Anthropic’s latest private funding round valued the business at $965bn, ahead of OpenAI’s $852bn valuation from its March funding round. Reports have suggested OpenAI could seek a valuation of up to $1tn, potentially as early as September, although that remains unconfirmed.

Other large private technology companies with significant AI exposure, including Databricks and Canva, are also being watched as future IPO candidates, although their timing looks less immediate.

For investors, the significance is not simply that more AI-related companies may come to market. It is that public markets could soon be asked to absorb a new cohort of very large, very highly valued businesses whose long-term economics are still being tested. Demand for AI exposure is clearly strong, but the harder question is whether rapid adoption can translate into durable revenues, margins and free cash flow.

AI may prove to be one of the great structural growth opportunities of the next decade, but public market investors will need to be disciplined. The issue is not whether the technology is transformative; it is whether the economics of these businesses can ultimately support the valuations now being placed on them.

What else do investors need to watch for? The sustainable investment lens

Paris Jordan, Head of Responsible Investing, writes.

SpaceX is a fascinating case study for ESG/sustainable investors because it sits between genuine ambition and some very real ESG concerns. On the surface, reusable rockets are a remarkable engineering achievement, Starlink has a credible social benefit in extending connectivity to underserved regions, and longer-term space infrastructure may one day have hugely positive environmental applications. But, with feet firmly in the here and now, sustainable investors should not rest on charisma, moonshots and future promise alone when there are genuine near-term investment concerns.

Governance remains the central issue here, with Elon Musk’s role being both the company’s superpower and its most obvious risk. The concentrated control, limited shareholder influence, questions around oversight, and the sheer breadth of Musk’s other commitments are material. Alongside this, reputational impact is also crucial to the investment case. While SpaceX benefits from the Musk halo, it also carries the Musk discount. His provocative public profile, political interventions, management style, and continual controversies create reputational volatility that sustainable investors should take seriously. This is particularly important for a company operating in increasingly scrutinised areas such as communications infrastructure, defence-linked contracts, space debris, and environmental impact. There is the potential for a fair amount of fallout here.

While the positives should not be dismissed, many of the strongest sustainability arguments remain prospective rather than proven. Now, if SpaceX offers stronger disclosure, more robust governance, and clearer evidence that its benefits outweigh its environmental, social, and reputational risks, it could become genuinely positively transformational. But for now, sustainable investors are best only considering it when the company can be shown to deliver a clearer net positive outcome for people or planet.