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Recession looks very unlikely in the UK

John Redwood, Charles Stanley’s Chief Global Strategist, argues that it is unlikely that there will be a recession in the UK this year or in 2017.

John Redwood

in Features


In March, the Treasury forecast 2% growth for this year and 2.2% growth for next. Just before the referendum campaign began, the Treasury set out its fear that a Leave vote could put the UK into recession, owing to a possible shock to confidence and disruption to trade from such a decision. Most private-sector forecasters have followed the Treasury’s lead. Out of 32 private-sector forecasts Charles Stanley has examined, eight now expect a UK recession in 2017 with negative growth for the year. The most optimistic three only expect 0.7% growth.

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